The 2024 Ballon d’Or, which saw Rodri’s unexpected win ahead of Vinicius Jr, was decided on October 28. While football stars are still coming to terms with the result, the race for the 2025 Ballon d’Or is already underway.
Here are the 10 players that Top Mercato has ranked as favorites, based on their performances since the start of the 2024-2025 season.
This ranking, updated as of November 25, is based on objective criteria and a neutral analysis of individual performances.
10. Lamine Yamal (Spain/FC Barcelona)
The Spanish prodigy, winner of the Kopa Trophy and 8th in the 2024 Ballon d’Or ranking, continues to shine despite injuries that disrupted his season start. With 6 goals and 8 assists, he’s been a key player in Barcelona’s strong start.
9. Jamal Musiala (Germany/Bayern Munich)
Not on the 2024 nominee list, the young midfielder is making up for lost time. With 9 goals and 4 assists, including a hat-trick in the German Cup, he’s become an essential part of Bayern’s team.
8. Erling Haaland (Norway/Manchester City)
Despite scoring 15 goals in 17 matches (12 in the Premier League), the “cyborg” has struggled to lead his team in crucial moments, as evidenced by his missed penalty against Sporting Portugal in the Champions League (1-4). Nonetheless, his consistency and 7 goals in 6 games with Norway keep him a strong contender.
7. Omar Marmoush (Egypt/Eintracht Frankfurt)
At 25, the Egyptian forward is enjoying a rapid rise with 14 goals and 10 assists. Known for his free-kick expertise, Marmoush is excelling in the Bundesliga and already attracting interest from the Premier League.
6. Harry Kane (England/Bayern Munich)
The English striker, who was 10th in 2024, has started the season impressively with 20 goals and 9 assists. His hat-tricks and quadruples, including one in the Champions League, make him one of Bayern’s key players.
5. Viktor Gyökeres (Sweden/Sporting Portugal)
With 24 goals for club and 9 for the national team, Gyökeres is the top European scorer this season. His hat-trick against Manchester City in the Champions League caught attention, and his remarkable form makes him a serious contender, even though his league isn’t as high-profile.
4. Vinicius Jr (Brazil/Real Madrid)
Runner-up to Rodri in 2024, the Brazilian winger has made an explosive start with 12 goals and 8 assists, including a hat-trick in the Champions League against Dortmund. However, a thigh injury will keep him sidelined until mid-December, hampering his pursuit of the Ballon d’Or.
3. Raphinha (Brazil/FC Barcelona)
Initially on the transfer list, the Brazilian winger has become a key figure at Barcelona with 13 goals and 10 assists. His standout performances, notably against Bayern in the Champions League and in El Clásico, put him in contention to compete with the best.
2. Mohamed Salah (Egypt/Liverpool FC)
Under the guidance of Arne Slot, Salah has rejuvenated his career. With 12 goals and 10 assists in 18 games, he’s been crucial in big matches and aims to surpass his 5th-place finishes in 2019 and 2022.
1. Robert Lewandowski (Poland/FC Barcelona)
At 36, the Polish striker is having an exceptional season with 20 goals in 18 matches. As co-top scorer in the Champions League and with key performances, including a brace in El Clásico, Lewandowski is in prime position to finally claim the Ballon d’Or.
Observations and Outlook
The race is still wide open. While stars like Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham have struggled to find their rhythm, veterans like Lewandowski and Salah continue to dominate.
Key matches, especially in the Champions League, will be crucial in determining the winner by October 2025.
