Liverpool’s prospects of beating Manchester City this weekend have been analyzed by the Opta supercomputer, and the numbers reveal just how tough the challenge will be.
Opta’s pre-match model, which ran 10,000 simulations of the fixture, gives Liverpool a 27.7% chance of winning at the Etihad Stadium. Manchester City are favored with a 45.4% chance, while a draw sits at 26.9%. These figures highlight the fine margins between the Premier League’s top teams, with City on 19 points and Liverpool just one point behind at 18.
Despite the statistics favoring City, Mohamed Salah heads into the match with a chance to make history. One more goal or assist would see him surpass Wayne Rooney for the most goal contributions for a single Premier League club. Salah has also been Liverpool’s standout player against City, involved in 15 goals (nine goals, six assists) against Pep Guardiola’s side—more than any other player.
Liverpool could also gain an attacking boost with Alexander Isak back in full training after three weeks out. While he may feature on Sunday, the manager has cautioned that he might not be at full sharpness immediately.
Confidence is on Liverpool’s side following their 1–0 Champions League victory over Real Madrid, a performance that showcased control reminiscent of classic Anfield nights. Opta’s analysis recorded 2.58 expected goals for Liverpool compared to just 0.45 for Madrid, underscoring their dominance. Virgil van Dijk led a defense that limited Madrid to eight shots, and Andy Robertson’s return to fitness has strengthened balance down the left flank.
Creativity could play a decisive role, with Florian Wirtz quietly emerging as a key playmaker. He created five chances in a single half against Madrid—the most by a Liverpool player in one half since January—indicating he could be influential again.
While the numbers give Manchester City the edge, Liverpool have faced similar challenges before. Underestimating them has rarely been wise. With Salah chasing records, Isak returning, and the team regaining rhythm, the only stat that will truly matter on Sunday is the one on the scoreboard
